Despite
intense media campaigns to undermine his integrity and opposition
attempts to amplify his faults, Donald Trump continues to record
remarkable numbers in polls. His followers also seem to have the
loyalty of martyrs. Staying with him despite his faults and failings.
If things continue as they are, it pains me to say it but Donald J
Trump will surely become the next president of the United States of
America.
However you look at it, Trump's support base is quite fascinating. Especially when you consider that they have pretty much defied every preconception in mainstream politics. It is easy to dismiss them as uneducated, super-conservative white men but the polls suggest something different. For example, Trump is polling very well among Republicans with degrees. Some polls also suggest that he is running stronger than average among Republicans who support abortion rights. The huge majority of his support base is male but he most recent polls suggest that he is yet to fall below 24 per cent support from women in a single state. That mean that roughly one in five women support him. Some polls also suggest that support amongLatinos and other minority groups is rising.
These
numbers seem to defy logic but one thing that doesn't is the fact
that Trump has a huge following among people who have 'had enough of
the system'. A RAND Corporation study found that voters who agreed
with the statement “people like me don't have any say about what
the government does” are 86 per cent more likely to support Trump
than any other candidate. This, for me, is the statistic that
explains Trump's seemingly unshakable support. Here is a man with no
political background to speak of running against the wife of a former
head of state in a country divided on so many lines and all the
various sections pointing the finger of blame at the establishment.
It seemed like a bad joke to start with but further review will show
why he is an 'anti-establishment' movement's dream.
Brexit
pretty much followed the same lines. It would be easy to assume that
most pro-Brexit voters were white people of British heritage who were
tired of foreigners but the number of ethnic minorities that voted
for Brexit should not be underestimated. I personally lost count of
friends and acquaintances that voted for Brexit, most of them
Londoners and of African decent. There were a variety of reasons why
they voted but one thread that ran through was that of discontent
with the norm and the opportunity to change a system that they didn't
like. The 'debunking of myths' and 'warning signs' were of no
consequence. The greater goal was more important than whatever
character flaws the messengers carried.
You
could say the same about Trump and his followers. The parallels are
just too similar and I am beginning to be less surprised by how
events are unfolding. Whatever the intention and however we got here,
we live in a world that thrives on systematically dividing people.
The conservatives against the liberals. The socialists against the
capitalists. The educated against the uneducated. Add the big city
versus country divide to the mix and you have the perfect mix of
ingredients for a 21st
century revolution.
When
you consider that only 57 per cent of eligible US citizens voted inthe 2012 election , that means nearly half of the country did not
vote. Granted that there will be a multitude of reasons why the 43
per cent did not vote but this also means that they are an untapped
resource for whoever has the means and rhetoric to engage them.
Trump's
impending success is based on the fact that he has been able to unite
a significant portion of people that feel like they have been on the
wrong side of the divide for too long. Whether or not this is right
is up for debate but it is of little consequence at this point. There
is also the added advantage of being able to self-fund his own
campaign which means he doesn't have to justify any expenses to
anyone and can invest as he sees fit.
Trump
is not everyone's cup of tea but I am confident that he will become
the next president of the United States of America because what he
has to say has traction. Maybe not with the majority of you that will
read this but we made the mistake of underestimating the impact of
people outside the mainstream with Brexit and it might be too late to
change the inevitable with the Presidential race. Perhaps this is
what 'the silent 43 per cent' have been waiting for. This definitely
seems to be their moment in the sun. I just hope, for the sake of the
world, that things don't get as ugly as the current rhetoric
suggests.
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